Almanac
BetaSpend with the weather.
Proven by your own revenue.
The big chains have a team for this. Almanac reads your market's weather and your own banked revenue, so you know when to spend, where to put it, and what actually worked. Not platform clicks. Your bank.
You're looking at Anti-Pesto Bug Killers, a fictional Tampa Bay pest control company with realistic numbers. Everything below is exactly what a connected account sees.
How Almanac works
Recommend-only · graded on booked customers- 1
Connect your books
QuickBooks + your bank. Every ad dollar is graded on the cash that actually landed, not clicks.
- 2
We read your demand
Your own sales history plus your market’s weather and season tell us when customers are coming.
- 3
Spend, efficiently
Get the weekly call: scale up, hold, by channel. We flag when the next dollar stops paying.
This week's plan
Built from Anti-Pesto's sales history plus the weather forecast for Tampa Bay. Almanac says when to lean in, when to hold, and how to split it by channel, then proves it in the banked numbers.
Marketing Flow — what actually moved the needle
24moWe strip out season + weather, then read what your spend actually drove · Largo, FL (Tampa Bay).
You're paying $165 to land a customer worth $3,000 in lifetime value (18.2:1). You can profitably spend up to $1,000 each and still clear a healthy 3:1, so there's room to lean in.
About 39% of your recent new customers are Working (driven by Google Local Services (LSA)), 61% are Earned and your earned baseline is holding steady.
What to do: Your steerable spend is paying — scale Google Local Services (LSA) while the cost-per-customer holds, and keep protecting the earned baseline.
About 74% of your sales swing was seasonality, not marketing. New customers flows with Google Local Services (LSA) — once the noise is stripped out.
Your whole marketing budget — including the brand spend (radio/outdoor) no ad platform can see, only your bank.
Offline spend held to a standard for the first time — credited when your direct-customer baseline moves with it, flagged when it doesn't.
- Test it
Radio · $1,500/mo
Ran flat at ~$1,500/mo, so your own history can't credit or discredit it. Design a test (vary it, then read the de-seasonalized baseline) before you keep paying — or cutting — on faith.
Room to scale — every +$1,000/mo banks ~$3,660
Demand is climbing and your cost per customer ($165) is holding — the next dollar still pays. Lean in on Google Local Services (LSA) while it holds.
Shift ~$3,208/mo from Angi / HomeAdvisor to Google Local Services (LSA)
Angi / HomeAdvisor is over-weighted vs. your best-fit mix, while Google Local Services (LSA) is the channel your new customers actually move with (r=0.80).
Shift ~$1,434/mo from Meta (Facebook / Instagram) to Google Local Services (LSA)
Meta (Facebook / Instagram) is over-weighted vs. your best-fit mix, while Google Local Services (LSA) is the channel your new customers actually move with (r=0.80).
Test trimming Google Search / PPC (~$2,400/mo)
Google Search / PPC is a meaningful line but isn't the channel new customers flow with. Cut it 20–30% for a month and watch the de-seasonalized customer trend — if it holds, redeploy to Google Local Services (LSA).
You're putting ~$1,500/mo into brand (radio/TV/outdoor)
Brand spend is invisible to ad platforms — only the bank sees it. It builds the baseline slowly, so judge it on the de-seasonalized trend over months, not last-click. We'll track whether it's lifting your baseline.
Is your radio working? Here's the test — 12 weeks · $4,152.
Your de-seasonalized new-customer run rate rises by at least ~10.5/mo above the ~52.2/mo baseline, sustained across the 12 weeks. Below that, it's inside your normal noise — we'd call it inconclusive, not a win.
We read it on your de-seasonalized numbers and tell you working or inconclusive— we won't pretend to see a signal your volume can't support.
Push budget Thu/Fri/Sat; ease off Wed/Mon/Tue.
A flat pacer (Shape, or a fixed agency budget) spends $511/day all week. We move $348–$675 — same weekly budget, aimed where the demand is.
Holding budget on Wed, Mon, Tue — demand isn't there, so extra spend just buys clicks that don't convert.
Recommend-only: review and approve. Auto-pilot (pushing these to Google/Meta) comes once connected.
- New customers flows with Google Local Services (LSA). When Google Local Services (LSA) spend moved, new customers moved with it (same month, r=0.80, 24 months). Directional, not attribution — but it's your banked numbers, not a lead report.
- New customers (marketing)+$28,000
- Upsell / price (existing)+$8,000
- Churn / contraction-$6,000
93%of your growth was new customers — real marketing-driven acquisition, not a price increase. That's the slice we take credit for.
Prescribed plan
$46,540 / 13 wksPut 29% behind Google Local Services (LSA); $46,540 planned across 13 weeks, front-loaded to lead the season.
- Google Local Services (LSA)29%
- SEO / agency retainer24%
- Google Search / PPC17%
- Meta (Facebook / Instagram)11%
~74% of your results swing is season + weather — outside the plan's control. This budget governs the rest; judge it on the de-seasonalized trend, not raw month-to-month.
Expect strong demand in Jul/Jun; soft in Nov/Jan regardless of spend.
As we connect ad-platform analytics + accrue more history, these numbers tighten from directional to precise.
≈ +$13,804/mo in new revenue (at ~$600/customer)
The plan's increase on the proven engine projects to a lift: ~91 new customers/mo (77–106/mo), vs a ~68 baseline.
At your current $165 cost-per-customer, every extra $1,000/mo on Google Local Services (LSA) ≈ +6.1 customers · +$3,660 banked
Keep scaling while your cost-per-customer holds — we'll flag the point where the next dollar stops paying.
Next 13 weeks — weekly budget to implement
Hand this to whoever manages the accounts. Paced to your demand; the channel split is applied each week.
Recommend-only — review and implement in your ad accounts. Directional, not per-lead attribution; confounders removed via decomposition. Connecting Google Ads / GA + Meta unlocks more granular, channel-true recommendations.
Sources: what each one really costs you
12moPlatforms count leads. Almanac counts booked customers. Same sources, re-graded on the work that actually landed on your schedule.
| Source | Spend (12 mo) | Leads (platform) | Platform CPL | Booked | Cost / booked | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Google Local Services (LSA) Ramped from $600/mo to $2600/mo over the last 6 months and the cost per booked customer held. This is the source to feed. Last month: 58 charged leads (46 calls, 12 messages) at $45 each, 32 booked. | $15,100 | 412 | $37 | 230 | $66 | Valued |
| Google Ads Solid overall. Brand and General Pest carry it; Performance Max books far fewer than it reports. | $28,800 | 540 | $53 | 252 | $114 | Valued |
| ↳Brand Search | $3,120 | 144 | $22 | 89 | $35 | Valued |
| ↳General Pest - Tampa Bay | $13,081 | 213 | $61 | 96 | $136 | Valued |
| ↳Mosquito - Seasonal | $3,599 | 62 | $58 | 26 | $138 | Valued |
| ↳Termite Inspections | $3,840 | 48 | $80 | 19 | $202 | Watch |
| ↳Performance Max | $5,160 | 73 | $71 | 22 | $235 | Watch |
| Angi Leads The lead price looks fine at $42. But these leads are sold to several companies at once, so few book, and each booked customer really costs you $281. | $43,200 | 1,029 | $42 | 154 | $281 | Flagged |
| Meta (Facebook / Instagram) Cheapest leads on the board and the most expensive booked customers. Low intent: most never pick up the phone. | $36,000 | 1,385 | $26 | 97 | $371 | Flagged |
| Referrals + organic Your earned baseline: reviews, word of mouth, people finding you on their own. No ad spend behind it. | $0 | · | · | 204 | · | Baseline |
| All sources | $123,100 | 3,366 | · | 937 | · |
Platform CPL is what each platform says a lead costs. Cost / booked is what a customer on your schedule costs. The grade only ever looks at the second number.
Move $1,500/mo from Angi into LSA
LSA books a customer for about a quarter of what Angi does, and it held that cost through the ramp. Same budget, more booked customers.
Campaign and lead figures are platform-level views of the same spend shown in the flow report above. Booked customers come from your books, never from the platforms. The rest of the budget (Yelp, the SEO retainer, radio) is read in the flow report and the Brand & Offline scorecard.
Recommend-only today: review and implement in your ad accounts. Connecting Google Ads and Meta later sharpens the per-channel numbers and (eventually) unlocks hands-off pacing. It still grades everything on your banked sales, never platform clicks.
Almanac Beta
Want this on your numbers?
Almanac is in beta. I'm taking on a small group of pest and lawn companies as beta testers for a 3-month trial: your real data, your weekly number, no charge during beta.
Want in, or just want to see it on your numbers? Book 30 minutes with me and I'll walk you through it.
Frank Andolina · Founder, Ando Systems